Initial Analysis of Climate Projections and Implications for Irish Aid in Northern Zambia

This document is an initial assessment of the implications of climate change for Irish Aid activities in N. Zambia. Climate projections from 11 downscaled models for Mansa and Mbala are used to provide a summary of climate change in Northern Province. This will be complemented in the full analysis by data from several regional climate models used in the CORDEX programme.

This assessment focuses on the effect of climate change on the suitability of key crops which are highlighted in the Irish Aid Local Development Plan for Northern Zambia. These have been identified as Cassava, Beans, Sweet Potatoes and Groundnuts. The likely impacts on Maize are briefly discussed, however, following discussions this is not a priority in this document. The effects on wetlands will be covered in more detail in further analysis using data from the regional climate models.

Trends in observed climate are presented, followed by a summary of climate projections for Mansa and Mbala. The requirements and suitability of different crops are then discussed.